Judgment and Choice : The Psychology of Decision

Despite the many formal methods available most decisions are madeintuitively?that is, without apparent reasoning and almostinstinctively. This revised and updated edition emphasizes theunstructured and natural way people make judgements and exercisechoice, which accounts for almost all real decision-makingactivity, but argues that intuition can be both studied andeducated. The book is quite different from standard texts ondecision-making methodology and standard decisions theory in thatit is written from the point of view of a psychologist whorecognizes that almost all decisions are based on anticipationspeople make about the future (predictive judgements) which lead tochoices or decisions largely based on intuition. Written in a clearand non-technical way it deals with the basis of intuitivejudgement, demonstrates the limitations on the human ability tomake judgements, and suggests the means of overcoming potentialshortcomings. At the same time it stresses the importance oflearning the limits to one?s judgmental a bility. The purpose ofthis book is to help people make better decisions. In a world ofincreasing uncertainty and complexity Judgement and Choice will beof great value to all decision makers?in commerce, governmentservice, medicine or any other professional activity. ContentsPreface; The nature of human judgement; Randomness and the probabilistic environment; Combining information for prediction; Combining information for evaluation and choice; Choice under uncertainty; On learning relations; The role of memory in judgement; Creativity, imagination, and choice; Problem structuring and decision aids; Human judgement?an overview; Appendices; Index Reviews of the First Edition ??I believe that Professor Hogarth?sbook will prove to be of historical importance in the developmentof the field of human judgement.? R.M. Corbin, Journal ofForecasting, Vol. 1. 1982. ??Hogarth has given us a clear,integrated treatment of the major issues in the field and hasmanaged to convey both the excitement of the work itself and thedirect practical implications of the findings.? Terry Connolly,ASQ, June 1982.